Possible hurricane (Ian) - 2022
 

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.1;-81...=20220929/2100

Worth keeping an eye on. When I checked it yesterday (Monday) it had a bullseye right on Crawfordville. Now it is swinging further east to be coming in at Tampa Bay. But it's a forecast way in the future, so it could really make landfall just about anywhere.

Aaaarrgghhh... Now the forecast is showing it swinging back further west and targeting Crawfordville again..... :face_palm_02:

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid...26681998815145


Hoping for this model!

Hopefully this front will help us out!


https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=...15052198748971

Well, I don't do facebook.... :shrug01:

Well, the impact point estimate has moved further west. But damn, Mexico Beach certainly doesn't need an encore....

I think the Gulf side has gotten it way worse than the Atlantic side the last few years. Good luck up there!

9 out of 10 it goes west like always toward LA or TX.

Yeah, the latest GFS forecast track is showing landfall at Mobile Bay on Sunday morning 10-02-2022. So I am expecting the models to change several times per day.

They will flip flop day to day.

I guess it helps keep viewers coming back to their websites to check on things frequently... :rolleyes:

Gas will go up for sure over this.

Not looking good for us.

Still early! Hoping that front will help us out.

Two of the models on Ventusky are showing the storm moving up the east coast of Florida. The other two, coming into the Gulf. So toss a coin, I guess. :shrug01:

Looks like i will get something out of this. Gonna start making block ice to save the meat if the power goes out and get stuff ready on Sun.

It could be a prob for the panhandle.

Yeah, and I'm about 75 miles north of Rich so I'm watching this too. not to mention my Wednesday night/Thursday morning route goes straight down 75 to I-4 and west to Lakeland!

I've been watching the predicted landfall point moving all over the place. And it depends on which of the models you choose to look at. Ventusky tends to default to GFS, so that is the one I have been watching the closest. Right now it looks like they are calling for it to come right through Crawfordville. :ack2:

But I did find a prediction that really seems to be the most accurate of them all. :hehehe:

We should know by Tues.

Here is a look at the model tracking that is current today.

Looks like they looked real hard at the multiple tracking models and GFS changed their prediction accordingly. Now showing landfall at Tampa Bay on Thursday, 09-29-2022 at 2:00pm.

Fortunately the powers that be cancelled our load for Orlando and Lakeland for this week due to the uncertainty of Ian. I'm not unhappy about it. I hope and pray that where ever it lands that the damage and danger is minimal.

We passed a lot of bucket trucks headed south on 65 in north Alabama this morning heading down to stage for the power outages that we know are going to occur. I couldn't see what state they were from though.

Unfortunately, when a hurricane gets into the Gulf of Mexico, usually someone is going to get hurt...

The spaghetti models changed a bit recently.

I heard a report saying the Tampa Bay area was a target and 10 foot surge expected there. The model you have seems to concur, at least for the moment.

Gonna get hairy for me.

Be safe. Leave if you have to.

I am going down with the ship no matter what. Gotta keep the vette from getting wet and telescopes. Will update during the storm unless power goes out.

Yeah man, stay safe. You can always replace material things.

Looks like you may get a couple years worth of rain from Ian. Seems like models are showing it stalling out and just sitting there just off the coast for at least 12 hours. Tornadoes could be a real problem.

I bailed out when Michael came up this way. Another big storm heads this way, Connie and I are out of here for a few days.

Gonna be a long wind event. No surge for me it looks like so that is good. And maybe no weather for you at all.

Looking at different models, rainfall amounts between 15 and 40 inches in the Tampa Bay Area and north east of there. GFS model shows the highest amounts. That’s crazy.

Looks like i won't get much of anything. Going way south of me.

Yeah, latest GFS model shows targeted landfall as Englewood Beach. Or thereabouts... I don't think we are going to get any rain out of it. Been having to water the citrus plants lately.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...-florida-tampa


Yeah, looks like Ft. Myers will get the brunt of it. I saw FDOT camera footage of I-4 and I-75 this morning. Westbound I-4 was empty! Everybody heading east and north on 75! Can't blame them.

.15" HERE SO FAR. Wind around 20mph.

Just saw pictures of Tampa Bay and St Marks Florida (up near Rich), all the water has been sucked out! It’s dry!

1" of rain and a little wind.

Must have been a hell of a big mound of water underneath that storm center. Would have been interesting to drive down and take a look at Mashes Sands Beach, but Connie had surgery on Tuesday and not much inclined to be moving around much.

We are just getting lots of wind. Not a drop of rain here.

Only 1.25". Winds started coming off the gulf and were around 60mph at 1 am. Lost power at 3am and just came back on. Feels like winter here thanks to the wrap around.