[Rich Z]

I guess this is appropriate for today, since Hurricane Season 2006 officially begins today.

(CNN) -- The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be an active one, with up to 10 of the big storms, the National Hurricane Center announced Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that four to six of those hurricanes could reach Category 3 strength or higher -- with maximum sustained winds topping 111 mph.

NOAA predicts 13 to 16 named storms this season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Eight to 10 of those storms are expected to reach hurricane strength.

A storm gets a name when it reaches tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.

NOAA administrator, retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, said that warmer sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and other wind conditions are favorable to hurricane development.

Wind shear, which is a change in air movement at different heights, can block the formation of hurricanes or make them weaker.

Lautenbacher said that it was too early to predict how many storms would make landfall, but said that "it is statistically within reason to assume that two to four hurricanes could affect the United States."

The Atlantic Basin has been in an active hurricane cycle that began in 1995, and nine of the 11 hurricane seasons since then have been above normal, according to NOAA.

There were so many storms in 2005 that the National Weather Service had to use Greek letters when it used up its list of 21 names.

This season is not expected to be as busy as last year, the busiest and deadliest on record with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes. But forecasters and emergency officials urged people to make preparations now.

"It's not all about the numbers, it just takes one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.

Four Category 3 storms -- Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma -- hit the U.S. in 2005.

Hurricane Katrina's strong winds and heavy waves devastated the Gulf Coast in late August.

The storm and resulting flooding caused more than 1,300 deaths and an estimated $100 billion in damage, making it the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

The World Meteorological Organization retired five storm names from the 2005 season: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma.

Stan dumped torrential rains on Central America and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, killing as many as 2,000 people.

Names are retired out of sensitivity to the victims, and for historical, scientific and legal purposes.

And I think viewing prior years hurricane tracks may be instructive....