Atlantic tropical storm development - Late August, 2019
 

Or lack thereof...

I was checking in on Ventusky today to see if anything was developing that might be a concern in the near future and noticed something rather interesting.

It looks to me that what used to be normally storms coming off of the African coast into the eastern Atlantic, developing into tropical waves, and sometimes strengthening into more serious matters is being blocked for the near future.

Take a look -> https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.3;-57.4;3&l=rain-3h

Interesting, eh?

I've never seen something like this at this time of year before. Normally you could see those tropical waves coming off of the African coast one after another, just crossing your fingers that they won't develop into a hurricane that comes barreling down onto the USA coastline somewhere.

Not to say something can't blow up directly in the Gulf of Mexico or anywhere in the western Atlantic, however.

At least I got my standby generator working, finally. Just in case.

I check a couple times a week the hurricane center .So far it has been duck soup and caviar .The locals say not to get comfortable because September October can hammer the west coast pretty hard .

I am prepared with both supplies and optional evacuation routes .

Gives me great confidence in the fact some insurance claims have not been settled from Katrina

Heck, I would suspect that some insurance claims from hurricane Charley in 2004 are still in litigation. Or the people filing the claims just gave up and paid out of pocket rather than foot the bill for the attorney fees they would need to pay. IMHO.

I have a bad feeling something will happen in the gulf like last year. Maybe mid Sept thru Mid Oct.

Well, I've got the standby generator fixed, so I don't have to worry about the freezer thawing out while we bail out somewhere more weather friendly. It's got 35 percent of a 500 gallon tank of propane left, so it should last for several days as needed. Of course, if we got a direct hit from a cat 5 like Mexico Beach did, it really wouldn't matter much.

After seeing what happened to Mexico Beach, I've got no interest in riding out a storm. Anyone who stayed in those houses to tough it out most likely had parts of their body scattered over an acre or more.

Was serious about a house in Marathon just before the seven mile bridge .The Realtor called me and said it wasn't there anymore .I don't know if that was a blessing or not .

I sure wouldn't want to be on the Keys, or own any structure on it, during a major hurricane passing through. There is nothing there to weaken a hurricane enough to matter. Storm surge could completely wash over every island there.

Will insurance companies even cover any home there?

At the time there we're two companies that would provide coverage .I've bought ,sold and flipped four properties on a poppers scale over the past fifteen years .My goal is to locate in the mid keys hopefully on a hill.

Heck, is there anywhere on the Keys that would not be underwater with even a 10 ft. storm surge?

Yes ,the parking garage off Duval st ,2nd floor .

Hell I'm 8 feet here in Ft Myers .We wear life jackets when we go to the movies and sit up high .

Hurricanes are a hazard for most of Florida and the Keys are certainly not the best place to hang out during a cat 5 .Every time I go down I am amazed at the structures that we're built in the early 1900's and are still standing .

We are at 23 ft. elevation here in Wakulla County, and about 15 miles or so from the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico Beach is a mere 65 miles to the west of us, so it wouldn't have taken much of a jog in tracking for hurricane Michael to have been a real problem for us.

That was the first time I have been watching a hurricane track and forecast and had my spider sense tingling about being somewhere else when it made landfall.

A Cat 5 in Wakulla County would put water on the Leon County line.

Dorine has formed ,close to hurricane status heading west .Interesting ,first of many to watch .

I see a TS Dorian in the western Atlantic, but according to Ventusky it should dissipate sometime Tuesday night.

Dissipate is good

It won't ever be anything.

I don't think it is really anything right now. Wind speed to be categorized as a tropical storm is 39 mph. I'm only seeing a max of 27 mph on Ventusky. There is no notable drop in air pressure there, and if not for some small storms in that area, you would never notice it at all as anything noteworthy.

I think the *fake* media is desperate for evidence that "global warming" is going to destroy the world so they can implement all the government controls they want to in order to claim they are "fixing" that problem. This year's hurricane season is just not cooperating with them.

The Ventusky modeling is showing Dorian not dissipating until Thursday night now. Subject to change without notice.... :rolleyes:

But any sort of tropical storm landfall looks pretty remote, anyway. At least from that storm. But the models are showing quite a messy first week of September in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Well, so much for that Ventusky modelling.... :thumbsdown: Dissipate my butt.....

Now it looks like they are forcasting Dorian to come on up to around St. Augustine on Sunday (09/01) afternoon and then just ride on up the coast until it goes inland in Georgia in the early AM hours of Tuesday (09/03). So Labor Day weekend isn't looking to be real fun for folks in that area.

It will keep going more and more north and i won't see anything from this. No rain in a week and it is dry again.

Yeah, you are probably correct. The forecast track on Ventusky now shows Dorian slowing down quite a bit when it gets close to the Florida coast, and gradually creeping northward just off the coast till it makes landfall in South Carolina. So quite likely that track will keep on moving more easterly and northerly until it misses landfall completely.

I guess these forecasts that cover a broad area of impact in the USA are good for business for the weather products industry for advertising revenue. :shrug01:

But heck, now the forecasts are predicting Dorian becoming a Cat 3 hurricane and making landfall around Daytona Beach sometime Sunday night thru Monday morning.

They keep pushing it south. It is a very small core system with the strongest winds only 15 miles from the center.

Yeah, but it is still likely to spawn tornadoes from the landfalling bands at a distance from the center. Those are completely unpredictable as to where they will drop out of the sky and really tear things up.

By Fri we will know much more. At least it is coming from across the state and not on my coast. But it could get out in the gulf and come toward you.

My first Florida hurricane since I was six and I may have to drive to Jacksonville to see it .I think Ft Myers is relatively safe but I went to walmart and bought the last rack of water .Filled up the wifes car but I don't know where we could go .I'm two blocks from the hospital so I can always go to the cafeteria .Maybe even find an empty room to take a shower .I'm old enough to pretend I'm senile if I get caught .

This is a good one to learn on .I'm sure there will be larger ones coming soon .

Yeah, could happen. Florida isn't all that wide and the elevation isn't all that high to knock all the punch out of a hurricane passing over it. And certainly the water temp in the Gulf is enough for it to regain power, especially if it just lingers around over water for any appreciable length of time. So it will depend on it's track. The sooner it gets over land, the better.

Had the battery go out on the Jeep last week, so I'm glad that didn't happen if we had to bail out and then discover that little problem. Bailing out will depend on what it looks like at the time. Cat 1, no sense in going anywhere. Cat 2, toss a coin. Cat 3 and above, we are out of here.

Strength at landfall has been raised to a category 4 hurricane. :(

Looks like the latest forecast model track is swinging the path to an abrupt northerly jog soon after making landfall somewhere between Miami and Titusville sometime Tuesday morning (09-03-2019).

http://www.corvetteflorida.com/pics/...019_0500pm.jpg

I think if you are anywhere on the Atlantic coast from Miami, FL to Cape Hatteras, you need to be on your toes. Some models are showing it hugging the Atlantic coast as it heads northward.

I don't think it ever get to FL.

I certainly do hope you are correct. I was a lot happier with the original "dissipate" forecast I saw.

With a slower forward speed it will buy time for the high to move east and let the storm stay offshore.

Yeah, I have seen it slowing down concerning the forward motion. Would be real nice if it just parked itself out in the Atlantic and then swung north away from all land.

LOL!! I think you are hitting this one right on the nose.

http://www.corvetteflorida.com/pics/...019_1100pm.jpg

They seem to be really hyping this one up before the "WHEW!! That was a close one!! Ain't that global warming a bitch?".

I'm up at 3:30 and the only news on was CNN and they we're saying possible cat 5 and most of eastern Florida could be destroyed .
At 4am our local station which has been dead nuts from day one gave their forecast .We're completely out of harms way in southwest Florida .We may get an inch of rain and light winds .The eye of the storm may not even hit land at least Florida .

CNN = Fake News Network, IMHO. If they said it was daylight out, I would have to go to a window to check on it. Did they happen to accuse Trump of being at blame for any damages? :rofl1:

Anyway, yeah, the "official" forecast track is pushing the storm further east with landfall *maybe* in South Carolina or North Carolina.

http://www.corvetteflorida.com/pics/...019_0800am.jpg

There is a 11:00am update that shows virtually the same path.

Yeah, certainly looks more and more that way....


http://www.corvetteflorida.com/pics/...019_1100am.jpg

Total miss.

Dorian is now a Category 5 hurricane. Sure hope it makes that turn to the north and then hopefully head northeast out to sea.

http://www.corvetteflorida.com/pics/...019_1100am.jpg

Appears to be just a bit breezy around that hurricane center.

http://www.corvetteflorida.com/pics/...019_1100am.jpg